@Ministry of Environment of Colombia via Wikimedia Commons.

Over 190 countries will meet this year in Cali, Colombia, to hold COP16 in October and finish on November 1, two weeks before COP29 takes place in Azerbaijan.

The theme is ‘paz con la naturaleza’ (‘peace with nature’) and top of the agenda is:

• The conservation of biological diversity;

• The sustainable use of its components; and
• The fair and equitable participation in the benefits of resources.

This year’s meeting builds on COP15, held in Montreal in December 2022, which saw the foundation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF), also known as the Biodiversity Plan.

“Agreement of the GBF stands alongside the Paris Agreement in terms of its significance in achieving consensus on the urgency needed to protect and restore biodiversity."

The GBF comprises 23 targets for 2030 and four goals for 2050, applicable across all sectors with a focus on the private sector.

In turn, the goal of COP16 is to codify a concrete implementation plan to comply with these targets.

“Agreement of the GBF stands alongside the Paris Agreement in terms of its significance in achieving international consensus on the urgency needed to protect and restore biodiversity,” said Arianna Griffa, Senior Policy Manager – Global, at the Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change in a paper on what to expect from COP16.

She said the GBF agreed on a set of four long-term goals for 2050 on biodiversity loss; ecosystem maintenance for sustainable development; use of genetic resources and traditional knowledge; and capacity building through financial support and scientific cooperation.

Financial agreements

Most relevant for fund operators is how decisions around finance will be funded. If new rules and frameworks are introduced that could change how the makeup is undertaken there needs to be clarity on what it entails and what it will cost.

According to Carbon Brief, resource mobilisation continues to be one of the most divisive negotiation topics at COP16, which provides the first litmus test for how developed countries have progressed on their finance commitments since Montreal.

“Pledges made so far have been far short of closing the $700bn-a-year finance gap for biodiversity,” it said.

In a non-paper compiling countries’ views on a new resource mobilisation strategy for 2025-30, developing countries revived their call for a new financial mechanism under the COP, which is opposed by developed countries.

The new fund “could become the biggest issue for debate” at the talks, Climate Home News reported.

The GBF

The UN-Habitat said that the agreements expected from COP16 in were:

• Review of the status of implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework
• Updates of National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans (NBSAPs) by countries
• Development of the monitoring framework for the Biodiversity Plan updates on resource mobilisation
• Finalisation of a multilateral mechanism on fair and equitable benefit sharing of digital sequence information on genetic resources.

Others in the investment industry are more cynical about where the state of play currently sits in terms of financing the changes needed.

“The volume of investment currently stands at less than $200 billion a year [to step up the protection and restoration of ecosystems agreed in the GBF], meaning that the public and private sectors must act fast to plug this gap,” said Marc Palahi, Chief Nature Officer, and Laura Garcia, Nature Specialist, at Lombard Odier Investment Managers in a paper on the changes.

They said private sector money must be the focus of future plans and promises made must be kept. “We need to reflect on how businesses and the financial sector can scale up and take part in the financing of nature-based solutions.”

Palahi and Garcia said there had been an “uptick” in the number of companies reporting information connected with their impact on natural ecosystems in 2024. “However, this trend raises a critical question: once they have analysed and measured their negative impact, how can companies then transition their business models to make them simultaneously profitable and respectful of nature with a net-zero impact?,” they asked.

They added that the circular bioeconomy is indispensable to achieving this. “Implementing new vertically integrated business models would not merely allow capital to be redistributed within the agricultural production system. It would also allow agricultural workers to be remunerated fairly and receive training in new production practices that are economically, environmentally and socially sustainable.

There has also been anger as negotiators at the summit were said to have “weakened” a draft decision on climate change and biodiversity. This came about from a removal of a mention of the global commitment to “transition away” from fossil fuels agreed at last year’s COP28 climate summit in Dubai.

“Trump used to decry climate change as a ‘hoax’ but has reframed his objection to one about cost, stating that he will not allow money ‘to be spent on meaningless Green New Scam ideas’.”

With COP29 to receive huge amounts of press it’s likely anything short of transformative declaration will be lost in the deluge especially as the US election takes place between the two, which is likely to drive decisions and momentum depending on who wins the White House and takes control of the House and Senate.

“Trump used to decry climate change as a ‘hoax’ but in this election campaign has reframed his objection to one about cost, stating that he will not allow money ‘to be spent on meaningless Green New Scam ideas’,” said Professor Tim Benton, Distinguished Fellow, Environment and Society Centre in a recent post on Chatham House.

The final discussion on strengthening the GBF will conclude today. However, they could be extended if a consensus is not reached. Whatever happens, it’s likely to affect fund operators for many years with their strategies.

 

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